Study Indicating that Omicron Represents a “Hybrid” Virus Containing RNA of a Common Cold Virus Could Place an Endpoint for Pandemic Lockdowns.

A preprint of a study on the possible origin of Omicron was recently published. The paper indicates that the new cousin of Covid-19 is, as suspected, a recombinant virus. What represents welcome news is that the recombinant is NOT an HIV virus with SARS CoV2, but rather SARS CoV2 with HCoV-229E, one of the most widely circulating common cold strains on the planet, estimated to have infected roughly 65% of all people on the planet over the age of 3 years.

https://osf.io/f7txy/

Scientifically oriented investors globally appear to have seized upon this information, digested it and reached a conclusion regarding the pandemic.

Their assessment, based upon market movements, both generally and within certain travel related and tourism sectors, is that the Omicron is likely to be a highly transmissible and potentially incredibly mild virus. This new variant should be far more transmissible, like a common cold. It could also be far less lethal, like a common cold. HCoV-229E has about a 4 day period of infection until peak, produces mild symptoms; it is the run-of-the-mill common cold. We catch it, get sniffles, a cough, recover quickly and life goes on.

Early data put forth in South Africa, where Omicron has largely supplanted Delta as the dominant virus, indicate that the virus has produced mild symptoms, similar to the common cold for most age groups, excepting the elderly where sample sizes are far too small for evaluation. South Africa has an extremely young population with an average age of less than 28 years. Most of the hospitalization that have been recently reported in South Africa have been deemed “incidental Covid-19”; patients were admitted for a variety of other afflictions and were determined to have contracted Omicron. The average hospital stay has been less then 3 days, down from 8 days, since the switchover of variant infection from Delta to Omicron.

Catching Covid-19 has been, to the media, roughly equivalent to contracting the plague, thus far. Going forward, as Omicron spreads globally and potentially becomes the dominant strain, a positive diagnosis might not carry the potential for a negative life expectancy on the senior population.

There will be two completely separate news cycles put forth regarding Omicron in the weeks ahead.

Due to the ease of transmission, the shock value stories will cover the incredible spread of Omicron in any country where clusters break out. These clusters will then fan out and should, based upon infection patterns, become the dominant strain in any sector where it competes against Delta for hosts to infect, in extremely short order. Tools that that we presently utilize to minimize spread, such as masks, social distancing and periodic restrictions upon mass gatherings might defer the speed of spread, somewhat. Present vaccines might not offer more than token immunity against infection contraction but should still, based upon the present share prices of the single line vaccine producers, offer benefits to ameliorate Omicron symptoms. Delta remains the dominant strain globally for now, is infecting patients and may persist longer in the developed world due to those spread limiting actions. As Delta continues to infect, during the ramp-up of Omicron, mass media will also report on the statistically significant increase in overall diagnosed infections. Also, based upon the numbers, there should also be an overall increase in hospitalizations, or at least hospital visitations, until such time a Omicron fully displaces Delta. If we pay undue attention to these stories, we might miss the more important developments.

https://www-cityam-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cityam.com/from-covid-curse-to-blessing-coronavirus-experts-relief-grows-as-extremely-mild-omicron-variant-rapidly-exterminates-much-more-deadly-delta-mutation/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&amp=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16388249964775&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cityam.com%2Ffrom-covid-curse-to-blessing-coronavirus-experts-relief-grows-as-extremely-mild-omicron-variant-rapidly-exterminates-much-more-deadly-delta-mutation%2F

The global investor reaction will be looking for different data, they will be consuming and digesting news based upon the relative severity of Omicron vs Delta. One would expect a period of increasing hospitalization during the overlap of the two viral outbreaks, that would be unsurprising. Institutional investors will be looking for data to confirm or deny their investment models, beyond those periods, into 2022, when Omicron should have about fully displaced Delta. Once Delta disappears into the background, government policy may change to reflect a more mild virus that most humans will tolerate quite handily. A kinder gentler Omicron should make surfing easier for all.

There are implications for investors; vaccine investments can move inversely to tourism sensitive sectors. Given the move in both global equities in general and by those tourist related sectors, it appears that those riding vaccine producers need to prepare for a greatly diminished wave, the beach might be in sight. This brings up the age-old investment question: “are vaccine producers now a good value, or are they a value trap?”