Estimates of Tourist Destination Substitution, due to Hurrican Irma, for the Benefit ASR and PAC, in 2017-2018.

St. Martin served more than 1.9 million tourists in 2016. Antigua and Barbuda served roughly 500,000 tourists. The US Virgin Islands (St. John, St. Thomas and St. Croix) served roughly 3 million tourists in 2016. Cayo Santa Maria and Cayo Coco, Cuba, also suffered substantial infrastructure and resort damage. These two areas of Cuba served over 1.4 million tourists in 2016.

In total, some percentage of the roughly 7.4 million tourists that annually visit the Caribbean islands, will find that their potential travel destinations will need to change for the remainder of 2017. A review of the resorts that have identified major damage thus far suggests that about 3 million potential tourist visits to various islands will be impacted.

The likely beneficiaries of hurricane Irma will be major destinations that were unaffected by Irma will be Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Mexico.

if Mexico picks up roughly 1.2 million of these tourists for the remainder of 2017 and 2018, with ASR picking up 60% of the substitution and PAC the remaining 40%, this will add about 700,000 potential passengers through the airports managed by ASR and about 480,000 travelling via PAC airports.

This could produce incremental EBITDA of $8 million ($4.8 million USD net profit) for ASR and potentially $4.3 million in EBITDA ($2.8 million USD net profit) for PAC respectively.
In terms of profit per share, there could be a bump of roughly $.15 per share for ASR and $.06 for PAC over the course of the coming 12 months.